To Breathe or Not To Breathe: The Nigerian Condition

Nigeria Circa 2023: A Masterclass in Seeing ‘Shege’

I was recently telling a couple of friends how much I spend on transportation these days, and they immediately wanted to set up a GoFundMe campaign for me (or buy me thick-soled boots). I decided not to even tell them about how much I spend on food and other things before they’d run mad. Things have gotten considerably harder for a lot of people recently. Fuel subsidy has been removed, and in an effort to achieve unification a crawling peg has been instituted at the CBN, devaluing the Naira against the dollar, and making imports even more expensive. To add to that, recently, school fees have become very expensive in many schools due to the subsidies removed. This might increase the number of school dropouts and add to the number of uneducated (University level) in the country.

Suffering and frowning

How has this affected us? Adversely at the moment. I was buying foodstuff at the market, and the seller was complaining on my behalf because I could fit everything that I had bought in one plastic bag. With both feeding and mobility being a problem for many, it makes sense to ask if and when you’ll ever benefit from all this madness.

The quest for (financial) freedom

To answer that question though, we’ll need to look into the reasons for these steps being taken (I’d like to state at this point, that I am not an expert. I might be wrong):

1. Fuel subsidy was removed because the government can’t afford to pay subsidies and carry out other social and infrastructural development. The theory (or part of it) is that; if we do not pay subsidies, we’ll have more to save and build roads, bridges, and other amenities. Better roads will cut travel time, which will in turn save on the cost of the journey, and ultimately be good for the distribution of goods. Also, we will be in a better position to borrow/seek investments from other countries or outside parties, if they know that we’re not just going to use the money to buy fuel.

2. With a unified exchange rate, investors will have a true picture of their investment value. More FX will flow in through official means, and this will drive down demand for FX and ultimately the price for it. So there will be no hassle in importing goods and services. Also, foreign businesses won’t have problems repatriating their dollars, increasing investor confidence in Nigeria.

3. With the removal of the subsidy on fees, both students and lecturers will be encouraged to sit up and improve the development of human capital. Also, the government can focus educational funding on research and facility development, while salaries are taken care of by students. The proposed student loans are to allow students to study, even when they don’t have the required amount.

This looks like a ‘market first’ economic plan, so how would it favour the ordinary Juice? Let me try painting it like this:

1. Due to increased investor confidence, more businesses will come to set up shop in Nigeria. This, with the infrastructure available, makes it easier to handle logistics and cut costs leading to more profitability. 

2. The more profitable the company is, the more it puts into growth and expansion, which will need skilled labour (remember how banks have been making a profit and paying higher salaries?)

3. Thankfully, the Universities have produced the best-trained human capital for these businesses. 

4. These graduates get to work and pay off their student loans. They also get to patronize smaller businesses which also get to hire more people. In addition to that, with more disposable income, they can afford to outsource the washing of their clothes, sweeping of their compound, and other things to differently-skilled labour. 

5. This keeps more people occupied, liquid, and tired enough to not steal, fight, or constitute a nuisance.

6. Finally, the government gets to tax a lot more people and use the taxes for even more development, ensuring that everyone gets good healthcare, amenities, and education.

This sounds great! But why isn’t it happening? 

The Boiling Frog Theory

There’s this story about how a frog was kept in a pot of cold water, and the stove turned on underneath it. The frog was oblivious to the fact that the water was getting hotter because it was happening gradually. By the time the frog found out, it was already cooked to medium rare. 

In our situation, I’ve always argued that while we need all of these changes, it should have been done like the cooking of the frog, slowly, gradually, till we wake up to all the changes, and hopefully, some benefits being put into effect.

Unfortunately, most previous administrations were too concerned with not losing the goodwill of their electorate (I’m looking at you Bubu). So, the plug had to be pulled immediately.

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

How can the effect of these policies be alleviated? Wallahi, I don’t know. I’m as clueless as you are (remember, I’m no expert). But it’s clear that something needs to be done, especially in the interim, so the whole country doesn’t devolve into chaos as it did in Adamawa as I was writing this.

The question however is: can something be done?

I think I saw the best description of the conundrum we’re in via someone’s tweet:

We just might have to adjust our eyes to see more shege than we’re used to.

What have I been up to?

1. I tried to map my spending per month in this town several times, and have failed severally. I’ll probably try again this coming month since it looks like the worst has happened economically.

2. I am back with my Jolly juice, but I have decided to embrace moderation.

3. I’ve been reading Obasanjo’s autobiography for over a month now. It is very interesting, but I get busy so easily. I should be finishing it this month though.

4. I miss Notadeepdive. Those guys knew the art of writing a proper newsletter.

5. I’ve been learning! Currently trying to up my skills with business analytics. Please let me know if you have any tips or gigs that I can work with.

6. I had the best weekend with my guy Chom Chom. 

7. I’ve been thinking about Ed Sheeran, the parallels between his music and my romantic escapades, and the fact that I feel like his latest album didn’t hit me right.

8. Speaking of music, I also recently dedicated my life (on Twitter) to defending Jay Z.

9. Today’s piece is dedicated to Onyinye. Thank you very much for being nice enough to feign interest whenever I excitedly try to explain my POV on these issues. 

That’s all for now folks, can’t say for sure whether I’m back, but I have like two more stories to share with you. Before you go though, what’s been happening on your end?